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Asmar, M E, Hanna, A S and Whited, G C (2011) New Approach to Developing Conceptual Cost Estimates for Highway Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 942–9.

Bogus, S M, Diekmann, J E, Molenaar, K R, Harper, C, Patil, S and Lee, J S (2011) Simulation of Overlapping Design Activities in Concurrent Engineering. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 950–7.

Cass, D and Mukherjee, A (2011) Calculation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Highway Construction Operations by Using a Hybrid Life-Cycle Assessment Approach: Case Study for Pavement Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 1015–25.

Cheng, Y, Yu, C and Wang, H (2011) . Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 933–41.

Hallowell, M R and Calhoun, M E (2011) Interrelationships among Highly Effective Construction Injury Prevention Strategies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 985–93.

Jin, X (2011) Model for Efficient Risk Allocation in Privately Financed Public Infrastructure Projects Using Neuro-Fuzzy Techniques. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 1003–14.

Kim, B and Reinschmidt, K F (2011) Combination of Project Cost Forecasts in Earned Value Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 958–66.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Forecasting; Costs; Value engineering; Project management; Forecasting; Cost; Earned value management; Project controls;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000352
  • Abstract:
    Reliable cost estimates are essential for effective project control and the management of cash flows within the project and at the company level. Conventional approaches to project cost forecasting, which rely on detailed information developed for a specific project (the bottom-up estimate or inside view), often result in cost overruns. It is argued here that the inside-view project cost estimates should be adjusted by combining them with the outside (or top-down) view of the project, which is based on statistical models of historical project data. This paper presents a probabilistic cost forecasting method and a framework for an adaptive combination of the inside view and the outside view forecasts of project cost using Bayesian inference and the Bayesian model averaging technique. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates into the predictions the actual performance data from earned value management and revises preproject cost estimates, making full use of the available information. Qualitative examples are presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method as a tool for effective project cost prediction and control.

Marques, R C and Berg, S (2011) Risks, Contracts, and Private-Sector Participation in Infrastructure. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 925–32.

Song, Y and Chua, D K H (2011) Requirement and Availability Time-Window Analysis of Intermediate Function. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 967–75.

Unsal, H I and Taylor, J E (2011) Absorptive Capacity of Project Networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 994–1002.

Young, D A, Haas, C T, Goodrum, P and Caldas, C (2011) Improving Construction Supply Network Visibility by Using Automated Materials Locating and Tracking Technology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 976–84.